What’s driving Australia’s grain market in 2025

Australia’s grain sector is entering 2025 with strong underlying fundamentals but also facing new challenges. Following several years of high production levels, seasonal conditions over the past 12 months have varied significantly across the country. Some regions have benefited from favourable rainfall, while others have experienced drier weather patterns that are expected to impact crop yields in the year ahead. This variability has reinforced the importance of flexible, region-specific farming strategies to manage risk and maintain production.

Global commodity markets have also influenced local conditions. Wheat prices, while off their pandemic-era highs, continue to fluctuate amid shifting demand and global supply chain pressures. Australian growers remain highly attuned to these international movements, recognising that export demand and logistics costs will play a critical role in shaping profitability throughout 2025.

Despite these headwinds, agricultural land values have continued to strengthen, particularly for high-quality cropping properties. Demand remains robust across the country, driven by family operators looking to scale and corporate investors seeking reliable long-term returns. Limited availability of premium land has helped maintain competitive tension in the market, with many regions reporting strong sale results even in the face of higher interest rates and commodity price volatility.

Supply chain infrastructure continues to be a significant consideration for the industry. Efficient access to grain storage facilities, transport networks and ports remains a key factor in supporting competitiveness, particularly for growers in more remote areas. Rising freight costs and logistical bottlenecks are shaping purchasing decisions and influencing where new investment in agricultural infrastructure is most urgently needed.

Looking ahead, the Australian grains sector is well positioned to build on its strengths but will need to navigate an increasingly complex landscape. Seasonal variability, shifting global markets, rising costs, and continued competition for quality land are likely to define the year ahead. Growers, investors and stakeholders who remain agile and forward-focused will be best placed to take advantage of the opportunities the market presents.

At Herron Todd White, our specialist rural valuers continue to monitor these trends closely, providing expert advice and insights to help clients navigate an evolving agricultural landscape.