Weather stability brings cautious optimism for growers

The past 12 months have been characterised by relatively stable weather across many key horticulture regions, which has provided improved growing conditions for many industries. Some industries, particularly bananas and annual crops, are grown along the eastern seaboard and so are susceptible to damage from cyclones and storm events. While there were several cyclones in early 2025, these have largely missed key production areas.

At the same time irrigators in inland Australia have mostly had access to irrigation water at affordable prices and have not been adversely affected by summer storms. Recent rainfall in the catchment areas has improved dam levels throughout the Murray/Darling basin, which is expected to alleviate concerns about the availability of water in the next 12 months.

While some industries have also seen improved commodity pricing in the past 12 months, this has been from a low base and in most cases, current commodity prices are still below historic peaks.

The macadamia nut commodity price has recovered to around $4 per kilogram nut-in-shell at ten per cent moisture and 33 per cent kernel recovery in 2025, well up from the low in 2023 of approximately $1.70 per kg. However, this needs to be viewed in the context of record prices of approximately $6 per kilogram in 2020.

Wet seasonal conditions in recent years on the New South Wales North Coast have contributed to lower-than-normal macadamia nut yields. The fall in the commodity price from the peak of approximately $6 per kilogram in 2020, along with recent lower harvest yields/wet conditions, has resulted in a more subdued macadamia farm market.

The almond commodity price has also improved significantly since mid 2024, with current farm gate prices reported to be over $8.25 per kg which has been welcome news for the industry following a number of years of depressed global prices.

Berry crop production (primarily blueberries, strawberries and blackberries) has continued to expand, with the introduction of new, patented varieties offering larger berry size and in some cases longer shelf life. National revenue is now over $1.3 billion per annum, making this segment one of the fastest growing horticultural industries. Much of the crop is produced under protective covers, ensuring more reliable supply.

A constant theme when talking to growers across all horticultural sectors is the rising cost of production. Most crops require high inputs of nutrients, and in many cases also have high labour requirements. The move away from piecemeal wages for seasonal workers has increased the average wage cost for many industries, including citrus, pome/stone fruit, berries and table grapes, in some cases by more than 20 per cent. The reduced profitability is affecting confidence levels across many industries, which in turn is considered to have reduced demand for horticultural properties.

Export Outlook

Data recently released by Bendigo Bank’s research team highlights the importance of export markets to the horticultural sector. The value of Australian horticultural exports totalled approximately $3.5 billion in financial year 2024/25, driven by growth in the citrus, table grape and nut (almonds, macadamia) sectors. China remains Australia’s largest export market, accounting for $1.2 billion or 34.5 per cent of the total export market. As shown by the following chart, it has been the main source of growth over the past 10 years.

India has also become a significant market for almonds and macadamias, with this market benefiting from the signing of a new trade agreement in December 2022 and increasing consumer demand.

Very little produce has been exported to the USA in recent years and so the introduction of a 10 per cent tariff is not expected to result in any significant impact on sales to the USA. However some commentators are suggesting that a number of our southern hemisphere competitors (Chile, Peru, South Africa) may divert produce away from the USA and instead try to increase sales to Asia.

The comparatively low Australian dollar over the past 12 months has benefited exporters.

Recent Sales

There have been very few significant sales in the horticultural sector in the past six months. This is partly attributable to few high standard properties being offered for sale, however there also appears to be a reluctance from buyers to meet vendors’ price expectations, particularly for assets that require any upgrading.

In the table grape sector, there are a number of medium and large-scale properties being marketed for sale. There appears to be interest in better standard vineyards, and we are aware of one pending sale in the Mildura region which will show relatively strong rates per hectare, however we would expect any secondary vineyards to continue to meet buyer resistance.

A number of citrus and almond orchards are also being marketed. Discussions with selling agents indicate there is genuine enquiry, however buyers remain discerning and there have been few significant transactions in 2025.