The recalibration we have been tracking since autumn has picked up pace. The August HTW Prestige Index registers a national average of 53 out of 100, down from 58 in July and 61 through May and June. That five-point fall is the largest single-month movement since this monitor launched, and it takes the index 13 points below its equivalent February reading of 66. What had been an incremental drift is now a more decisive shift in sentiment.
Brisbane is the notable mover, easing from 62 to 50 and stepping out of Warm territory for the first time. Our team there reports transactions easing, days on market extending and supply beginning to build, with sustained negative commentary weighing on confidence. The Gold Coast has softened from 65 to 55 as listing volumes contract and vendors hold out for the spring campaign.
Sydney has slipped from 40 to 35, joining Melbourne, which is unchanged at 35, with both markets now in Cool territory. Perth holds firm at 80 and Adelaide at 65, leaving only two of our six cities in Warm territory and a 45-point spread between the strongest and weakest readings – the widest we have published since the Montior’s inception.
The drivers are unchanged, but their cumulative weight is telling. Successive cash rate increases through 2026, the Federal Budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax settings, and ongoing geopolitical instability are all sharpening price sensitivity, even among cash-funded purchasers. Sydney’s auction clearance rate has now held below 50 per cent for a third consecutive month.
Conviction has not left this market, though. Three Sydney suburb records fell in July, and Perth’s western suburbs continue to trade in off-market transactions at double-digit annual gains. Scarcity and turnkey quality still command a premium; it is secondary positions and capital expenditure risk where the hardest questions are being asked.
Spring will be the real test. Our teams are in these markets daily, and the pages that follow set out what they are seeing.