Horticultural production continues to grow across most crop types and locations as growers seek economies of scale in order to remain profitable. Farmers are embracing new technology and varieties to increase yields and returns per hectare. We also continue to see expansion in the area planted to crops including citrus, almonds and macadamias, although the rate of expansion has slowed in the past year. There has been very little expansion of the area planted to table grapes; however, there has been significant redevelopment of older traditional varieties to market-preferred patented varieties.
Much of Australia’s fruit and nut production is exported, with export markets usually paying higher returns than are available from domestic markets. This is especially true for many key fruit crops including citrus and table grapes. Growers compete with other southern hemisphere producers, including South Africa and Chile, to supply out-of-season key Asian markets.
Much of the increased production has come from corporate growers, which in many cases have had greater access to the capital required to fund re-planting and expansion than family farms do. Corporate farms are often also better resourced to meet the compliance requirements involved with both growing and exporting rural products.
The total value of Australian horticultural exports rose to a record $3.5 billion in 2025/26. This represented a very small increase (less than one per cent) over the value in the preceding year, however consolidates a substantial longer term growth trend.
The total value of exports has more than doubled since 2014/15. Much of the credit for this is due to the efforts of industry bodies over the past 20 years to gain export access and build long term market relationships.
China has for much of the past 15 years been the largest single export destination and remains so, with approximately $1.3 billion (or 36 per cent) of export products sold into China during 2025/26. However, there has been recent success in growing the value of exports to other Asian countries, including Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Japan.
Diversifying export markets is a key challenge for many industries. The table grape sector has had some success in this regard, with the value of table grapes sold into Indonesia in the past year surpassing the value of fruit sold into China. The value of table grape exports in 2025/26 is estimated to have been approximately $600 million, slightly higher than previous years despite some crop losses following heavy rain in late February and March.
Discussions with horticultural producers across many regions have highlighted the impact of higher input costs on farm profitability. Intensive horticultural crops require high inputs of fertiliser in particular, but also fuel, irrigation water and labour. Commodity prices have largely remained stable over the past two years, however the cost of farm inputs has increased significantly over the same period. The only option for producers is to maximise production per hectare, which of course leads to higher supply and in turn places pressure on commodity prices.
Over the past one to two years, we have seen growers of many crops become more ruthless when it comes to redeveloping less profitable plantings, rather than risk losing money. This has usually led to replanting with new, patented varieties of grapes, citrus, apples and stonefruit. The decision to redevelop less profitable plantings has reduced the impetus to buy greenfield development sites. There have been relatively few greenfield developments undertaken in the past two years.
Contributing to the reluctance to commit to greenfield developments in the Murray Valley (below the Barmah Choke) are concerns around irrigation water availability in dry years. Successive wet years have to some extent reduced the fear of water insecurity, however the risk of being unable to access affordable irrigation water in extremely dry years remains real.
A number of large-scale greenfield developments are occurring in the Goulburn Valley in Victoria and also in the Riverina region of New South Wales. Water security is less of an issue in these locations. Almonds and olives are the main crops being developed. These crops allow mechanical harvesting and so can be grown at scale.
A consequence of the lower farm returns and weaker confidence has been fewer sales of significant horticultural assets in the past 12 months. A number of larger scale almond orchards, citrus orchards and table grape vineyards have been marketed for sale in the past year, however have not yet sold, highlighting a divergence in vendor and purchaser price expectations.
This divergence in price expectation becomes more pronounced with any secondary properties. Buyers appear still willing to buy high standard properties that offer immediate returns, however, are increasingly wary of buying any properties that require expensive or time-consuming capital expenditure. An example of this discounting of values is the recent sale of the Keyes Ag almond orchards in the Griffith region. These orchards sold for what is considered to be relatively low prices, reflecting market stigma around their standard of development.
An example of a better standard horticultural property selling at what is considered to be a more normal level is the sale in late 2025 of an 87-hectare table grape vineyard at Red Cliffs (north-west Victoria). This vineyard sold privately between two local growers, showing a rate of slightly over $90,000 per hectare for a modern vineyard, with patented varieties and a high standard trellis. The purchaser of this property did not need to complete any significant capital expenditure.
A further impact of the reduced returns for many horticultural crops has been a difficulty for landlords to raise rents. A number of larger-scale permanent tree and vine crops are owned under a lease structure, with often a longstanding tenant partnering with an institutional buyer. For this model to work, there generally needs to be an expectation of capital growth over the life of the investment. The reality is that there has been little capital gain in the past four to five years and also pressure from tenants not to pass on rental increases. This issue is complex and requires both parties to negotiate acceptable outcomes, especially when re-planting or redevelopment becomes due.
One of the largest growth segments in horticultural production in recent times has been berry crops. Growers have increasingly moved to growing crops under protective tunnels or glasshouses in order to ensure year round supply of good quality fruit. The national value of berry crop production in the 2024/25 year was estimated to be $1.38 billion, a significant increase from five years earlier. Blueberries now represent approximately 40 per cent of this revenue. Blueberry production continues to be largely centred around Coffs Harbour, although it is becoming harder to secure suitable land and water supplies for expansion in this area. Large corporate producers now grow berries on multiple farms from north Queensland to Tasmania in order to be able to ensure constant supply and we expect this trend to continue.
The Australian cherry industry has experienced some volatility in recent years, with production heavily influenced by climatic conditions and prices received by growers being influenced by the amount of supply, the strength of export markets and exchange rate fluctuations. However, the 2025/26 Australian cherry season delivered record results, characterized by a major surge in premium fruit quality and export returns. Key statistics and highlights from the season include:
– Total Export Volume: 4950 tonnes, reflecting a 13 per cent increase year-on-year.
– Total Export Value: $110.26 million, which is 22 per cent higher year-on-year.
Tasmania and Victoria dominated the international market, combining to account for over 90 per cent of Australia’s exported cherry volume.
Cherries are currently exported to over 20 countries across the world with Hong Kong, Taiwan, China and Vietnam remaining the key export destinations, receiving more than 70 per cent of total export volume.