The September HTW Prestige Index registers a national average of 51 out of 100, easing two points from August’s 53. After last month’s five-point fall, the pace of decline has moderated, but the direction has not changed. The index has now retreated 15 points from its February reading of 66 and sits at the lower edge of Balanced territory, the softest sentiment reading since this monitor began.
Adelaide is this month’s mover, easing from 65 to 50 as our team describes a market that has settled into genuine balance, with buyers discerning and agents insisting on realistic pricing from day one.
Elsewhere, the scores hold. Perth at 80 remains the clear national outlier, where the Budget’s tax changes are prompting high-net-worth buyers to redirect capital into their primary residences and cash offers are competing for very limited stock. The Gold Coast sits at 55 and Brisbane at 50, both balanced but with listing volumes contracting as vendors wait. Sydney and Melbourne remain at 35, in Cool territory for a second month.
The macro backdrop is unchanged in substance but sharper in timing. The cash rate sits at 4.35 per cent after three increases this year, and the market has now largely priced in a further rise at the Reserve Bank’s meeting on 29 September, with all four major banks expecting a hike before year-end. Add the May Budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, tighter SMSF borrowing rules and continuing Middle East instability, and it is little surprise that even cash buyers are taking their time.
Notably, spring has delivered an increase in trophy listings rather than sales. Sydney has two harbourfront estates seeking $100 million, and Melbourne’s blue-ribbon suburbs are carrying significantly more stock. How those campaigns resolve will tell us plenty about where the ultra-luxury end of this sector truly sits. Where a property is unique and rarely traded, as Ascot’s $17 million auction result showed in Brisbane, buyers will still compete.
Our teams are in these markets daily, and the pages that follow set out their on-the-ground intel to help keep you informed.