Welcome to the October 2026 edition of Month in Review.
The September inflation figures, released on 28 October, confirmed what most households already feel at the checkout and the bowser. Annual headline inflation rose to 4.3 per cent, and underlying inflation lifted 1.0 per cent over the quarter, outpacing the Reserve Bank's own forecast. Fuel, up almost 24 per cent over the year with the Middle East conflict keeping oil prices elevated, continues to do much of the damage.
With the cash rate already at 4.60 per cent after September's increase, the fourth this year, the Board meets on 3 November facing an uncomfortable trade-off. Unemployment has climbed to 4.7 per cent and consumers are starting to rein in discretionary spending, yet inflation is still heading the wrong way. Whatever the Board decides, rate cuts now look like a late-2027 story at best.
The housing market is absorbing the strain. National dwelling values fell 3.7 per cent over the September quarter, sales volumes are more than 17 per cent below last year, and the median property now spends 47 days on the market, roughly double the time it took a year ago. Tellingly, fewer owners than usual are listing at what should be the year's busiest time. This isn't a market flooded by forced sellers. It's one where buyers have stepped back.
One feature of this cycle is worth highlighting. Cotality has revised its July and August value falls to be larger than first reported. When indices are corrected after the fact, any lending decision based on automated or desktop estimates is effectively working from last month's market. In a falling market, the gap between the index and what a property will actually sell for is where risk builds, and it's the gap our valuers close every day.
That risk is sharpest at the entry level, where around half of all first home buyers now purchase through a government scheme, many with a five per cent deposit. Our residential section examines the options available to these buyers across the country, from house and land packages in Melbourne's south-east starting around $675,000, to units in Brisbane's middle ring and duplexes in Mandurah. Our valuers are candid about where value lies and where it may not hold.
The HTW Prestige Property Monitor held at 51 out of 100 this month, steadying after a run of declines from 66 at its February launch. Beneath the national figure is a stark divide, with Perth scoring 80 while Sydney and Melbourne remained at 35.
In commercial property, our team looks at the entry-level office market. Softer conditions have brought plenty of strata suites in Sydney's CBD, city fringe and Parramatta under the $1 million mark, with owner-occupiers leading demand and investors weighing net returns against outgoings and vacancy risk.
Our rural coverage is a national round-up shaped largely by the season. Victoria and South Australia are heading for one of their best grain harvests in years, while dry conditions are pressuring graziers in southern Queensland and western New South Wales. Our Victorian team also unpacks the irrigation water market, where Commonwealth buy-backs now account for more than 30 per cent of entitlements in the Murray, Murrumbidgee and Goulburn systems.
Conditions like these are when local knowledge matters most. Please enjoy our October edition of Month in Review.