NSW Northern Tablelands and North West grazing markets
The NSW Northern Tablelands and North West grazing markets are expected to remain stable in 2026, underpinned by strong livestock fundamentals, reliable infrastructure, and generally favourable seasonal conditions.
Quality grazing properties continue to attract steady interest, particularly in higher rainfall areas and productive country with sound water access, while selective buyers remain cautious due to recent interest rate increases slightly tightening borrowing capacity. Land values are likely to see moderate growth, reflecting demand for well-managed, productive properties, although ongoing price sensitivity and below-average transaction volumes persist across the regions. Livestock prices, particularly beef and lamb, are expected to remain firm, supporting buyer confidence, while operational focus on pasture, fertiliser, and enterprise management remains critical.
Overall, value growth is anticipated to be measured rather than rapid, with well-managed properties demonstrating resilience, and those with additional commercial or development potential, such as renewable energy or carbon opportunities, likely to attract stronger interest from niche or ESG-focused buyers.
Victoria/Tasmania
The rural market throughout Victoria and Tasmania is currently considered to be cautious, with few significant sales occurring and buyers able to be highly selective. Where has the FOMO gone?
Fewer than normal significant rural sales occurred in Victoria and Tasmania during 2025. The sales that did occur often involved lengthy marketing periods, with buyers able to take their time and be selective.
Confidence was impacted by dry conditions throughout much of southern Australia during the first half of 2025. Fortunately, the second half of the year was more favourable, which saw the cropping, dairy and grazing sectors manage to get to the end of the year in better shape than was expected earlier in the year. Livestock, wool and milk prices are above longer term average levels, and the combination of full hay sheds and a favourable commodity price outlook is expected to see improved confidence in the grazing and dairy sectors during 2026.
This improved confidence will likely result in higher sales volumes and possibly improved land values in higher rainfall areas, noting that values in some of the safer grazing and dairy areas of Victoria eased between 2022 and 2025. However, we may have to wait until spring to see a significant increase in the number of properties coming to market.
The cropping sector is expected to remain cautious in 2026. Commodity prices are comparatively low, prompting many producers to hold grain in storage in the hope of achieving higher prices later in the year. This, combined with depleted soil moisture, is expected to see the cropping sector take a wait-and-see approach to expansion. There is likely to be a number of smaller cropping parcels transact at similar values to 2025, however demand for larger holdings appears only moderate at this stage of the year. At this early stage there do not appear to be any factors likely to contribute to any uplift in cropping land values during 2026.
As always, much will depend on interest rates and whether we see a good autumn break in 2026.
The horticultural sector continues to experience only moderate confidence levels across most industries. While the commodity price outlook for 2026 looks favourable for many industries (almonds, citrus, table grapes), producers continue to comment about elevated input costs, especially for seasonal labour. In the current environment there appears to be a reluctance to take on more debt (and possibly a reluctance from lenders to issue more debt). Capital is expected to be directed to replanting less lucrative varieties rather than expansion.
This trend has been very evident in the table grape sector over the past few years, with growers aiming to maximise returns per hectare by changing varieties rather than simply increasing farm size.
The almond industry has a large area of plantings approaching the end of their economic life which will inevitably require redevelopment over the next five years. The area of almonds planted in Australia expanded dramatically as a result of the MIS fuelled expansion between 2001 and 2010. The cost of redeveloping these older orchards may curb expansion plans for any orchard owner with a significant percentage of trees over 20 years of age.
We consider the existing broad range of rates per hectare for large scale almond orchards to continue, with potential purchasers focused on location, weighted average tree age and historic yield data.
Another current issue for birrigators in northern Victoria and southern New South Wales is the higher cost of leasing water. The volume of water stored in the Murray catchment dams has gradually reduced over the past 18 months to 56 per cent of capacity. The diminished supply, coupled with higher consumption has seen the cost of leasing water rise in the past 18 months, to currently be over $400 per Megalitre in many zones.
In the current environment, buyers are expected to be patient and selective. There is likely to be demand for better standard orchards and table grape vineyards, while any secondary properties are likely to either be passed over or transact at discounted levels.
Meanwhile, there is nothing to suggest there will be any improvement in demand for wine grape vineyards, particularly in the inland areas. The only message growers hear from wineries is a need to reduce supply and prices for red varieties will remain at rock bottom levels in 2026. A drive through the inland wine grape regions shows an increased number of abandoned or cleared vineyards, with growers well aware that they cannot produce traditional red varieties profitably. The reduction in supply of red varieties may happen faster than anticipated.
Demand for white varieties is stronger and larger scale producers are expected to be able to generate profitable returns in 2026, however the higher cost of leasing irrigation water will impact many producers.
Southern Qld and Northern NSW
Mixed seasonal conditions brought on by a relatively dry spring and early summer, have become a feature of the landscape. Generally, winter cereal crops performed well with five tonnes per hectare yields common for barley and wheat. While prices have softened, these sound yields ensured a profitable harvest. Chickpeas were somewhat more challenging with testing prices and storms including some significant hail events taking their toll. Given seasonal conditions, double-cropped planting generally fell short of moisture requirements, which limited yields.
Conversely, livestock prices have been influenced by macro demand (for finished/kill cattle) and the dry conditions in the south, leading to strong prices and a general strengthening year on year.
The property market in our region remains relatively active. Highly notable increases in supply have been witnessed in the feedlot sector, and when looking across the eastern seaboard, activity in standalone grain storage and processing sites has also been higher.
My opinion is grain storage and processing sites are currently presenting good buying with standalone facilities trading well below replacement values and also at a lower price point than on-farm facilities. While I do not like to generalise in relation to values, rates for upright silo storage on farm vary from $150 to $300 per tonne while standalone facility sales are reflecting values for upright storage of $75 to $200 per tonne, highlighting the significant discrepancy in the market.
Feedlots are a very interesting topic of conversation, and most rural producers have noticed the uplift in listings available. Between 2024 and 2026, approximately 220,000 SCU of feedlot capacity have been listed for sale or transacted across Queensland and Northern New South Wales. This total includes current operational capacity and approved development sites. Total listed or transacted feedlot SCU capacity between 2019 and 2023 was markedly lower than current activity (albeit a longer five-year period), totalling approximately 55,000 to 65,000 SCU in primary transactions. During this previous five-year window, the sector’s growth was driven by on-farm expansions rather than asset sales, as record-high cattle prices following the 2019 drought led operators to retain and upgrade existing facilities.
Major 2024 to 2026 listings and activity include:
Smithfield Feedlot, Proston, 18,500 SCU
Mort and Co portfolio, three locations, totalling approximately 103,100 SCU
Rangers Valley Feedlot, Glen Innes, approximately 40,000 SCU
Moruya Feedlot, Billa Billa, approximately 5,960 SCU
Myranee Feedlot, Texas, approximately 10,000 SCU and 9,000 SSU
Lloyds Feedlot, Wieambilla, approximately 10,980 SCU
Macquarie Downs Feedlot, Leyburn, approximately 3,900 SCU
Texas Valley Beef, Camp Creek, approximately 25,055 SCU
The current surge in listings appears to reflect most feedlots operating at or near capacity, strong processor demand for kill-ready beef, and an increase in dollar-per-SCU rates. Sales appear to have been motivated by: corporate restructuring; producers looking to secure feed space and create a level of vertical integration (often in conjunction with branded beef marketing); large family and corporate operations looking to diversify formerly live export-reliant northern businesses; and in the case of established feedlots, the current cost of development (both physical and bureaucratic). Discussions with experienced operators suggest legislative costs associated with an approval / development at the scale of circa 20,000 SCU may equate to approximately $500 per SCU. While rumours are emerging in relation to further uplift in developed SCU rates above this range, sales are typically occurring from $1000 to $2500 per SCU, depending on development. Due to the cost of development as mentioned, undeveloped licences typically vary from $50 to $250 per SCU.
More broadly, demand remains sound for well-developed, well-presented holdings, whether they are grazing, mixed farming or cultivation/irrigation. We continue to see strong values for prime cultivation and irrigation holdings, with dryland cultivation rates of $15,000 to $22,000 per hectare excluding structures becoming common. Permanent irrigation (fully watered year in year out) rates of $40,000 to $70,000 per hectare on the Downs are also typical.
The volume of sales for western Mulga blocks has slowed with the continued uncertainty in regard to carbon legislation, which has seen those carbon aggregators largely inactive. That said, south-western Queensland grazing has evidenced either maintained values or some recent sales showing some further growth. Separately, a recent sale in the Taroom district broke the $4000 per acre mark, and a sale in the Hannaford / Meandarra / The Gums area has broken the $2000 per acre mark.
Generally, it appears the rural market is stable, with growth reflecting the re-establishment of relative price points. Interest rates and patches of dry weather appear to be limiting further uplift, though the strength in demand from processors is supporting the current price point. Headwinds remain in the form of trade concerns – particularly the limiting quota system on exports of beef to China and our current reliance on the US market (being our largest beef export destination). Continued immigration and speculative investment in southern Queensland (likely Olympic Games related) appears to be putting a floor in the residential market, with some of those participants cashing in to pursue a lifestyle change, which is creating and supporting continued demand in proximity to regional centres for first-start rural property.
WA Southern Agricultural Regions
As harvest for the now-concluding 2025/26 grain growing season winds up, it is expected by industry experts that production will exceed 27 million tonnes, a result which would see a new Western Australian record set for the third time in five seasons and a 20 million-plus tonne crop being achieved in four of the past five seasons.
Generally, above-average rainfall across most regions in August, good rainfall throughout September and mild spring temperatures have contributed to the level of crop production, despite the later start and some summer storms and heavy rainfall events, which impacted yield potential, grain quality and logistics operations in parts of the state.
The current level of demand for cropping properties throughout the southern agricultural regions of the state, whilst generally strong, is highly locational and segmented, dependent on the level of recent market activity in the locality (and therefore the level of pent-up demand within the locality), the quality of property being offered to the market and the price point of the property in quantum of dollars rather than on a rate per arable hectare basis. The strongest level of demand currently exists for smaller-scale and therefore more affordable, well-developed, and managed add-on properties with desirable soil types, or for properties in tightly held localities that have experienced limited transactional activity in the past 48 months. The current selling season window has been reflective of this as a sustained level of high prices that were achieved some 24 months ago continues to occur in some regions, but also as some new district records are set in others, noting however that these transactions are generally for premium or better regarded properties of a smaller add-on scale, or those located in what would be considered middle and lower priced markets in terms of a rate per arable hectare.
The current state of play is expected to remain throughout 2026, particularly in the heated add-on market, barring significant declines in production or unforeseen adverse effects on producer margins. However, cost efficiency is expected to play a key role in the profitability of farming businesses and, by extension, the level of demand for farmland and the sustainability of property prices, as a result of continued high input and operating costs and a soft commodity price outlook. A further surge in farm values is unlikely given the current pressure on margins, as the cost of land has been reported by some operators to already be at the edge of profitability, unless continued high production levels and positive trends in operating costs and commodity prices both occur. Larger corporate-scale properties, which are inherently higher risk, are likely to remain more difficult to sell as margins remain tight, unless sold piecemeal to local farmers.
NT/Kimberley
2025 closed with the record sale of Beetaloo/Mungabroom on the Barkly Tablelands (reported to be $300 million bare) to CPC, whilst Kalyeeda was the only sale in the Kimberley region for the year ($27.5 million).
Several Northern Territory stations remain for sale, such as Aroona (west of Katherine), Benmara (Northern Barkly/NT Gulf), and Claravale (near Pine Creek), noting that some of these have been testing the market now for an extended period.
Whether momentum has been created from the Beetaloo sale, we will have to wait and see, however the good pasture outlook for much of the north of the NT as well as a confident live cattle export market outlook may just be enough to give some of these northern properties for sale a bit of extra polish to attract a buyer.
The wet season to date has generally been above average for stations from the Sturt Plateau through to the Top End, through to the NT Gulf and then south along the Queensland border around Tobermorey down on the Sandover, but it has been a far lighter wet (average to below average rainfall) back towards the centre. There is nothing currently testing the market in the Alice region so whether some later summer rainfall makes a difference there, again we will wait and see.
Our prediction for 2026 is that the cattle industry will again be the main driver in the NT rural property market. With the strong live export performance forecast to continue and expectations of stable, firm prices building on a record-breaking 2025 when live exports from Darwin Port hit a 10-year high, the sector is positioned for continued stability. 2026 prices are anticipated to remain close to 2025 levels, potentially with some upside. A strong cattle market might also bring the focus back to cleared freehold farming country being utilised for pasture production to supplement feed supplies into the pastoral market, and we are already aware of one large freehold aggregation looking to sell to fulfill this purpose.
The marketing over the past two years or so of freehold farming country in the Douglas Daly and Katherine region for potential dryland cotton (rainfed) growing looks likely to be back to that same land being used for fodder, with potential dollar per hectare rates falling back in line with that lower value use in the NT. Over in Western Australia’s Ord River Irrigation Area (ORIA) we anticipate flood irrigation land sales to continue to be in hot demand with the scheduled completion of the cotton gin in Kununurra. Irrigated land values (inclusive of the standard 17 megalitre per hectare per annum entitlement) eclipsed $20,000 per hectare in 2025. We see no reason this trend won’t continue in 2026, as momentum in the cotton industry continues, as does the critical mass required to make cotton the agro-industrial crop that will sustain the remote farming community of Kununurra/ORIA into the future.
The mango industry remains unsettled. The mango twig tip dieback disease is disrupting Top End plantations, causing concern. Furthermore, the likely sale of the large Cheeky Farms mango aggregation by receivers may cast a shadow over this traditionally resilient and generally prosperous industry.
There have been very few irrigated horticulture sales in the NT over the past couple of years to allow an accurate bead to be drawn on where values are trending, apart from the recent sale of a former Indian Sandalwood plantation to one of Australia’s largest potato growers, who will use it to grow seed potatoes for their South Australian farms. There are also the green shoots of conversion underway on several former Indian Sandalwood farms, most with significant groundwater irrigation infrastructure and licences in place, that sold during 2025 and are now looking to convert to more traditional uses (cucurbits, irrigated fodder or mix of both).
If the currently mothballed Livingston Abattoir ends up selling (as mooted towards the end of 2025) and processing kicked into gear again under a different production model, then the potential demand for cattle preparation/backgrounding for slaughter could also be a significant upside for the NT cattle industry in 2026.
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