In this month’s rural property market review, the focus is on grazing land. Reports from our rural valuers around the country reveal that for most of the nation’s northern grazing land (say, Northern New South Wales, Queensland, the Northern Territory and Kimberley), the market is still largely in a steady holding pattern with reasonable liquidity at all price points provided vendor expectations are realistic. In the southern regions however (mainly Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia), transaction volumes remain generally subdued as potential sellers and buyers still opt to sit out of the market.
From a national perspective, our valuers’ feedback shows that the rural property market remains a complex environment of conflicting signals. The livestock market, fuelled by a multi-year recovery and strong international demand (particularly due to the massive US herd rebuild), has provided a strong foundation for grazing farm profitability and restored producer confidence, however we see that this influence has not been uniform. In the north for example (again, northern New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory) the positive effects of strong cattle prices were amplified by favourable seasonal conditions which has bolstered balance sheets of existing landowners, increasing their borrowing capacity and positioning them to be the most active and competitive buyers in the market, mainly for higher quality assets which allow them to expand operations and benefit from economies of scale. These have typically been the institutional-grade buyers and larger family buyers. In contrast, we see how the combination of historically high land prices and high interest rates (although the latter are now lower) has created a distinct market segmentation where non-institutional buyers and newcomers to the market who rely heavily on debt are being largely priced out due to the difficulties in getting a potential buy to stack up. This goes some way towards explaining the generally low current transaction volumes and more concentrated demand for higher-quality assets. This segmentation is evident across all states; however, in regions where good rainfall has boosted optimism (generally the northern regions), the higher livestock values and favourable seasons have underpinned land values. However, despite the recent welcome rainfall in Victoria and parts of southern South Australia, it has not been enough to rebound the land market there and even though the outlook for livestock prices remains strong, demand for grazing land generally remains subdued. Having said that, we do note a recent sale in Victoria, which may suggest early signs of stability returning to that market (refer below).
The recent recovery in livestock markets (particularly the cattle sector) from the late 2023 price trough, which significantly eroded arm incomes and rocked confidence in the sector, appears to have restored the trust needed for both land buyers and sellers even to consider a transaction, but it has still not been enough to trigger a more widespread increase in market activity. Nevertheless, the past couple of months have shown how a resilient and recovering livestock market has served as the main driver for sentiment in the grazing land market.
The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) stood at 871 cents per kilogram (as at 22 August 2025), representing a significant 28 per cent increase since the same time last year. This strong performance was echoed across the sector, with the National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) seeing a 30 per cent rise over the same period. This trend was supported by strong demand from both restockers and processing centres. Again, the structural, long-term trend of the US remaining Australia’s largest beef export market has underpinned this demand. We note that the June quarter of 2025 saw the largest quarterly beef output ever recorded from Australia, at around 717,890 tonnes with 8.88 million head processed for the financial year, the third-largest annual slaughter since 1978 and the highest since the drought-driven peak in 2015. This profit injection, fuelled by producers capitalising on record prices, improved producer sentiment and again has helped underpin the grazing property market.
The sheep and wool markets also showed firm conditions. The National Trade Lamb Indicator (NTLI) experienced a significant increase, up 14.9 per cent month-on-month in July, trending 61.4 per cent above the five-year average. This price strength was evident in specific regions; Forbes Saleyards recorded a new Australian record for heavy lambs with one pen of second-cross lambs selling for $460 per head on 22 July. Unlike the cattle market’s demand-driven strength, the lamb price rally was largely a result of tightening supply during the winter months, coupled with a reduced flock from heightened turnoff in prior periods. The common thread with the cattle market however is that it’s a positive price outcome that has underpinned farm profitability and a generally steady underlying market sentiment.
Northern New South Wales
Rural property market conditions are sound for wider northern New South Wales following the previous period of strong value growth. We continue to see an increased proportion of strategic and near-neighbour purchasers and fewer out-of-region purchasers. Similarly, a growing number of sales occurring within an expected market range are apparent. Some weaker conditions for second-tier or lower-quality assets appear to be emerging. At the same time, the strong balance sheet positions of large family enterprises and corporate operations continue to underpin strength at the upper echelon of the market for premium assets. Generally, the rural property market has remained steady throughout 2024 and into 2025, however there are signals of increasing property supply in some areas leading to longer selling periods and more selective purchase decisions. Inflationary challenges have eased, though increased costs continue to pressure operating and living budgets.
Recent notable sales in the New England area include the 370.3-hectare Argyle, Thalgarrah near Armidale for $5.86 million in July 2025 which shows $15,825 per hectare overall and $1191 per DSE or $17,865 per breeding cow area (land value) based on a carrying capacity of 4500 DSEs or 300 breeding cow areas. The property was auctioned in April 2025, however failed to sell and was then listed and sold via private treaty to a Queensland buyer. The property has very good quality basalt soils, high rainfall of approximately 800 millimetres per year, 1260 ASL average elevation, good quality improved pastures and very good structural improvements.
Central Queensland
There were overall mixed results in the Queensland market, ranging from very strong values in line with market peak for good quality properties with scale, to no result for less desirable property where vendor expectations remain too high for buyers. There is no particular region which stands out as more active, however it appears that there is higher demand in the north and west for properties with scale and BAV rates below $10,000 per adult equivalent.
Winter rain has been widespread throughout Queensland and most areas are well grassed, although it has been a cold, frosty winter.
Weaner sale prices and meatwork grids have been firming and the cow market has been strong. A significant amount of cattle has been purchased by southern buyers.
Overall, there is reasonable liquidity in the market at all price points provided vendor expectations are realistic.
Central Tablelands, NSW
The season in the Central Tablelands and Central West New South Wales is improving with recent rains and the prospect of good pasture growth as we enter spring. Despite this optimism, buyer caution remains evident. Sales volumes appear to be slowing. We note several earlier sales:
Bellmain Renshaw, McGirr Way, Yeoval, is an improved 852-hectare mixed farming property running a self-replacing Merino flock, prime lambs, mutton, wool and beef, supported in part with improved pastures and grazing wheat crops. The property sold in May 2025 for $4.8 million.
The 273-hectare Ringaroo, 9228 Mitchell Highway, Wellington, located nine kilometres south of Wellington, is a mixed farming property with a set of sheep yards and an older woolshed, sold in February 2025 for $1.65 million and indicating $6033 per hectare overall, including buildings.
NSW Lower Western Division
Grazing levels in the Western Division of New South Wales remain at firm levels with several recent transactions including the sale of Tasman and Corinya Stations (71,996 hectares) to the north of Ivanhoe (price unknown).
The smaller Disalie Station (4112 hectares) located between Ivanhoe and Hillston auctioned in August resulted in a sale at $269 per acre ($665 per hectare). It comprises good open grazing country with several swamps and Conoble Creek frontage and permanent bore water supplies and with only modest buildings and yards.
We are also aware of the recent sale of Waiko Station just to the east of Ivanhoe, which was sold by Elders before auction to a local family. The price is unknown, however, the asking price was $200 per acre ($495 per hectare), and if it proves to have sold at this level, it would set a new benchmark for the immediate location.
Another significant property currently being marketed by Landmark Russell (EOI) in the Balranald area is the Magenta Aggregation at Hatfield comprising 51,000 hectares. It is well improved property with a good blend of grazing country incorporating Salt Bush, Blue Bush, open plains to lightly timbered with Rosewood, Belah, Pine, Wilga and Mallee. If it sells, this property will provide further confirmation of the current firm market for good grazing properties.
There have been snippets and rumours of a turnaround for the goat market, with a report in The Land indicating a significant rise in prices paid at the recent Dubbo goat sales, driven by strong processor demand, with up to 100 per cent increases reported. Prices quoted were for over $5.50 per kilogram cwt and expectations (not confirmed officially) are that it could be at $6 per kilogram soon. The market has been very tough in the past 12 to 18 months for kill space and no demand for small goats under 18 kilograms.
Western Victoria
The past year has seen softening within the western Victoria rural market. There is still limited supply which has been a continuing feature of the market over the past two to three years and a cautious approach from buyers is still being adopted. Nevertheless, there is still demand from financially secure farmers seeking to acquire more grazing land to improve economies of scale in their operations, however isolated properties, marginal country and less regarded areas are receiving less interest and could expect to sit on the market for an extended period unless vendors become price realistic in order to achieve a sale. In some instances, a drop of 40 per cent from the peak of the market is expected. For the vast majority of farmers, the balance sheet is strong following several years of high stock prices, low input costs and low interest rates. However, the higher interest rates of the preceding period and what appear to be entrenched higher production costs have resulted in a more price-sensitive buyer and in many instances, vendor expectations are needing to be adjusted.
There is possible light at the end of the tunnel! The recent sale of Elwood, Macarthur district in western Victoria is really the first sign of stability we have seen in the market over the past year to 18 months. The 486-hectare cleared and pasture improved grazing property 36 kilometres south of Hamilton sold to a New South Wales grazier for $8.99 million, showing $18,519 per hectare (assessed bare).
NT/Kimberley
For pastoral properties in the northern half of the Northern Territory and Kimberley (Western Australia), the fluctuating nature of export feeder cattle prices (for Indonesian importers in particular) has always underpinned confidence to invest in pastoral leasehold land (cattle stations) given this region’s heavy reliance on the live export market. The relationship between Northern Territory and Kimberley cattle stations and the Indonesian cattle industry could nearly be described as a symbiotic one. The Indonesian cattle industry, which depends heavily on their feedlots running efficiently, relies on northern cattle stations providing a consistent supply of in-specification live cattle (typically a Brahman but sometimes a Droughtmaster type with a maximum average shipment weight of 350 kilograms liveweight) to help Indonesia meet its growing demand for beef, supporting its food security objectives and providing affordable protein and in return, Indonesia offers Australia a vast, growing market with a booming middle class driving demand. The relationship also represents one of Australia’s main diplomatic ties with Indonesia, again, creating economic benefits and fostering partnership while also being a source of diplomatic tension and mistrust.
Despite the relative success of the Australian-Indonesian trade, it has faced major disruptions over the past two decades, the main one being the temporary ban in 2011 by the Australian federal government (which is still influencing their food security objectives today) and another being concerns about animal welfare and disease control (like Botulism in 2024 and Lumpy Skin Disease in 2023). The Indonesian government’s regular interventions by exercising their significant control over the animal protein market by using trade agreements, disease control initiatives and productivity programs often undermine commercial investment in local feedlots by causing price distortions and market instabilities, making it difficult for feedlot operators to compete with cheaper, imported frozen products. An impact of the above, plus obviously the strength of the IDO/AUD cross-rate, has been the sometimes-wild fluctuation in the number of import permits issued.
Despite this, total cattle numbers exported through the Port of Darwin to Indonesia increased in 2024 to a five-year high of around 362,700, the trade being driven by increased supply of available cattle at prices far lower than during the previous four years. The big trade numbers continue in 2025, driven again by an attractive average Darwin feeder steer price of around $3.45 per kilogram live weight, palatable to Indonesian feedlotters, as they have already imported (via Darwin) around 243,000 in the year to date or nearly six times the number at the same time last year. Following a couple of average to above-average wet seasons across the Northern Territory and Kimberley, the supply is available and demand is still there. There was a demand dip in May due again to uncertainty about the number of import permits to be released by the Indonesian government for the second half of the year, however the Indonesian government also announced in May that the import permit quota would be lifted by 184,000 head (in addition to the 350,000 allocated at the beginning of the year), citing the wide positive economic impact that fattening Australian cattle in their feedlots has on the economy.
So, the live cattle export market presents a mixed bag of benefits and risks to mainly northern NT and Kimberley cattle stations. For many northern cattle stations, the majority of their eggs are in the one live export basket, and as the live export suspension showed, a negative event will have a direct consequence on those properties. This has always been a risk, and it has generally been factored into the investment profile of this market. To date, the potential risks appear to have been countered by the strong relationship formed over the decades between the Australian live export industry and Indonesia. While that relationship would seem to be nearly too strong to consider ever ending, there appears to be more doubt playing out in investment decisions for northern pastoral leases, with several stations in the NT having now been on the market for sale for an extended period (but perhaps their asking price is also excessive?) while cattle stations further south, below Daly Waters say and down to Central Australia which are not so beholden to the live export trade, appear to be attracting far more attention from prospective purchasers. On this note, we watch with interest the result of recent offerings to the market:
Murranji, south-east of Daly Waters and Neutral Junction near Barrow Creek in Central Australia for which expressions of interest closed 29 May.
Aroona, west of Katherine and Vermelha near Larrimah remain for sale having tested conditions now for many months.
Benmara in the NT Gulf/fringe Barkly Tablelands which sold for $40 million (bare) in April 2023 in a sale negotiated by LAWD to Sydney-based Wealthcheck Funds Management, is the first cattle station we have seen (in the past decade at least) where the asking price has actually fallen, now asking $35 million (bare). We do not consider however that this price reduction is reflective of the state of the NT pastoral property market in general however the result will be fascinating.
Recently listed Hodgson River, also in live export heartland in the Roper district, is testing the market’s long-term perception of where the live cattle export trade will go. Expressions of interest closed on 12 June.
Only one pastoral lease has sold in the Northern Territory in the year to date. Dorisvale (675 square kilometres) had been on and off the market since 2019 but most recently was listed in June 2023 for expressions of interest and finally sold in July to a farming and commercial business family from Bathurst in New South Wales who already hold a share in nearby Mary River West station near Adelaide River. The price was considered very strong at $25 million WIWO or around $2700 per adult equivalent (analysed bare).