Australia’s grain markets show mixed outlook for 2025/2026

Australia’s grain sector is entering the 2025/2026 season with notable regional contrasts, shaped by rainfall variability, planting conditions and emerging market dynamics. Northern regions are on track for exceptional yields, while central and southern zones face more mixed prospects, highlighting the continued influence of moisture availability and seasonal timing.

Across key grain-growing states, our rural teams have examined current conditions, production outlooks, and property market performance. From Northern NSW’s strong potential and Southern Queensland’s above-average harvest expectations, to Western Australia’s promising statewide crop and Victoria’s challenging season, this month’s analysis provides a detailed overview of the factors influencing both yields and rural property trends.

Northern NSW (Northern Tablelands, North-West, Liverpool Plains)
Grain harvest prospects for northern New South Wales are reported to be on track to be the strongest in the state, with yields expected to be well above long-term averages, assuming timely rainfall continues. Moisture levels, due to favourable seasonal conditions, should allow for strong potential for wheat, barley and pulses, and early planting has begun strongly in many areas.

The rainfall outlook for spring and summer is favourable, with forecasts above median rainfall for many parts of the north.

Northern New South Wales is likely to deliver the strongest performance in 2025/2026, both in planted area and yield per hectare, provided follow-up rainfall is sufficient. Growers here may be more willing to take risks with expanded plantings, but still need to watch moisture in the subsoil, especially in marginal parts (north-west and north-east).

Central NSW (Central Tablelands, Central West)
Central New South Wales is likely to see decent crop establishment where moisture is adequate, with good anticipated yields, assuming follow-up rain. Some areas had good winter rain, whilst others remained dry or marginal. Subsoil moisture was mostly average to above average, but some central zones missed moisture (or had delayed breaks).

Seasonal outlook (September to November) suggests above median rainfall chances in much of the state, which includes these central New South Wales zones.

Central New South Wales sits in a middle ground: outcomes will be more variable. Farmers in central areas may need to hedge risk via crop choice, staggered planting and efficient moisture usage. Quality (protein, disease) may become a distinguishing factor.

Southern NSW (Riverina, Murray, South West Slopes & Plains, Southern Slopes, South East)
Seasonal conditions have been more challenging with many southern areas experiencing a drier than average autumn and winter, lower soil moisture, especially subsoil, and delayed or patchy planting. Rainfall between April and October in many southern zones has been below long-term averages with forecast rainfall (September to November) better than average, but the margin for error is smaller here, hence timely rainfall is critical.

Yield prospects are more muted than in the north with some cropping area reductions anticipated, especially for more moisture sensitive crops like canola in the south. Wheat yields may still be above average in some southern Riverina precincts if rainfall comes in time, however there is higher grain quality risk, especially for southern areas facing heat at grain fill or late season dry spells.

Southern New South Wales faces the tightest margins. The ability to get rainfall at the right times is absolutely critical. Irrigated cropping will be more dependent on water supply and pricing. Southern areas may benefit most from improved seasonal forecasts, water trading, and possibly shifting some areas to lower-risk crops if conditions look poor.

Southern QLD
The grain growing season has finished dry at the time of writing. The Darling Downs specifically has largely missed out on some late-season rains, though fortunately, subsoil moisture was close to full at planting and has proven enough to carry crops through what has been a long, dry winter, particularly around Dalby. Areas towards Goondiwindi and Talwood picked up some good falls in August and September and would appear set for a bumper harvest.

Some areas of wheat and barley have been taken off early due to grain prices, either for silage or hay though the majority has been carried through to harvest albeit considering weak prices. Chickpeas similarly have fared the season reasonably well. Some additional in crop rain, particularly where sown into double crop situations would have been welcome, though generally the crop also appears set for an above-average harvest.

The local market continues to reflect reasonable strength with some signs of growth, particularly for water and irrigation development, while prime dryland cultivation rates continue to set benchmarks or maintain existing expectations. Mixed farming properties have not expressed the same level of growth and could be viewed as reasonable value by comparison.

Supply to the market remains strong across most regions with agents generally reporting a solid pipeline of listings to publish before running into the end of the year. Listing periods are mixed, with examples of premium property still selling at auction or within two months of listing. Secondary property, some mixed farms and examples of unrealistic asking prices are seeing extended listing periods, though a number of sales are still occurring where property that has been listed for some time will eventually find interest assuming a willingness to meet the market, rather than attempting to set records.

A couple of notable recent sales include:
Yarnham at Chinchilla, a mixed irrigation farm which had been exposed to the market on and off for more than nine months.

Stillwater at Ellangowan (50 kilometres from Toowoomba) sold at auction for $14.58 million with three registered bidders. The well improved mixed farm features 597.4 hectares, a 240 megalitre allocation, Condamine River frontage, 95 hectares of irrigation and 341 hectares of dryland cultivation.

Balmoral, Brookstead, an 854.67-hectare irrigation asset approximately 60 kilometres from Toowoomba, sold for $25 million.

Taronga, Irongate (48 kilometres from Toowoomba) achieved $4.3 million for 256.12 hectares, reflecting a strong lifestyle influence attributed to this mixed farm.

Western Australia
The overall outlook for total crop production in Western Australia at the completion of harvest this 2025/2026 growing season is promising, with the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia reporting a September estimate of 23.68 million tonnes, a result which would see a 20 million plus tonne crop being achieved in four of the past five seasons. Generally, above average rainfall across most regions in August, good rainfall throughout September and mild temperatures have contributed to the current outlook despite the later start. There is also still some upside on crop potential barring any significant widespread heat events or further frost events in the southern regions in particular.

In the northern regions seasonal conditions have generally been very good, despite the late start, due to consistent and even rainfall throughout the growing season since the break, however somewhat of a concern is the potential in the later crops which may be affected by heat events as temperatures increase.

The outlook for the central regions overall is positive, although the impending increase in temperatures, lower subsoil moisture in the lower rainfall areas and root development issues on the back of a later start and waterlogging in the higher rainfall areas is likely to have an impact on eventual production.

The southern regions have also experienced waterlogging, particularly through the middle part but also the western part of the southern regions, with frost also at play, but overall the outlook is for an average to above average season. Out to the east of the southern regions results are mixed and notably there is some disease pressure being experienced in wheat crops, however crop potential overall has held up well due to consistent rainfall throughout the August to September period.

Some of the initial transactions this selling season are showing sustained prices that sit at a level achieved some 48 months ago in some areas, although there are anecdotal reports of some records still being set in others, noting that these are for premium properties in what would be considered middle and lower priced markets.

Victoria
The 2025 season has been difficult across much of Victoria. Many crops were dry sown, there was a later than normal break and a dry spring has contributed to a grain crop that is likely to be of below average size. A large area of cereal crops has also been cut for hay in the past three weeks, which will further reduce the grain harvest. Hay prices have started to fall in expectation of increased supply.

There have been few significant cropping property sales so far this year. A number of larger properties are advertised for sale, however have not sold at the time of writing. There continues to be examples of smaller parcels being purchased by neighbouring farmers, with these sales still occurring at strong levels. Larger parcels are proving harder to sell at the moment, suggesting that corporate and larger family businesses are reluctant to commit to major purchases.

While recent reports have shown a decline in farmland values across Victoria, this is largely attributed to weaker demand in the grazing sector. Despite the lack of sales activity, we consider values for better standard cropping properties have not declined to any significant degree.