April 2026 Australian Property Month in Review

April 2026 Australian Property Month in Review

Australia’s rate environment is anything but settled with the RBA lifting the cash rate twice already this year to 4.10 per cent. The March decision split the RBA vote five to four. This suggests genuine internal disagreement about how far this tightening cycle needs to go, but a broad consensus that inflation has proven stickier than anticipated and the risk of it remaining above target is real.

The conflict in the Middle East remains a meaningful driver. Higher fuel costs are feeding through to transport, logistics and construction, and elevated fertiliser prices are increasing pressure on the agribusiness sector across the nation, particularly as the country heads into the window for crop planting.

For residential property, the rising construction input costs may lead to a prolonged period of constrained new supply at a time when demand in most major centres remains robust. For residential mortgages, the volume of house and unit sales is already at a five-year low. Further interest rate increases will place meaningful pressure on borrowing costs and could very likely cause a significant uplift in Australians looking to refinance their mortgage.

On the domestic policy front, the Albanese government’s revamped First Home Guarantee came into effect in January 2026, removing income caps, lifting property price thresholds and opening places to an unlimited number of eligible buyers. Expanding the first-home buyer cohort in a supply-constrained market has driven entry-level prices to new highs in many centres. Whether the government’s longer-term commitments to the housing accord can be achieved at the required pace remains, on current evidence, an open question. Certainly, much of the current commentary is not optimistic.

The release of the Q1 CPI data has improved the case for a rate hike in May. The analysis revealed a headline inflation rate of 4.6 per cent in the 12 months to March, the highest since September 2023. The trimmed mean annual inflation held steady at 3.3 per cent, although this is still above the RBA’s target band. These results provide further justification for the Reserve to increase rates, most likely by another 0.25 percentage point to 4.35 per cent.

Our residential section this month examines a theme with direct relevance to the current environment: champagne location on a beer budget. With blue-chip suburb medians well beyond the reach of average buyers in most capital cities, our teams explore what is genuinely available in prestige postcodes for buyers working with tight budgets. The answer involves compromise, but our location-by-location analysis identifies which trade-offs make long-term sense and which to avoid.

Our commercial section focuses on the office market, which continues to redefine itself in the post-pandemic era. The picture our specialists present is one of growing divergence in performance. Prime-grade assets in well-positioned CBD precincts are stabilising, while secondary stock continues to struggle with elevated vacancy and tenants who have no shortage of better options. Understanding where any given asset sits in that divide is now the central question in office investment.

In our rural section, we examine the Australian grain sector. Western Australia has recorded its best-ever harvest at 27.35 million tonnes, while the eastern seaboard presents a more complex picture with higher input costs, soft commodity prices and seasonal variability shaping confidence ahead of the next sowing window. Our teams provide the localised perspective that national data alone cannot deliver.

As always, the value of Herron Todd White’s national network lies in the quality of its ground-level intelligence. With 500 valuers covering residential, commercial and agribusiness in every postcode in the country, we remain uniquely positioned to deliver the independent, evidence-based analysis that sound property decisions demand.

Please enjoy our April edition of Month in Review.

Peter Maloney
CEO
Herron Todd White